Simone Mancini


Assegnista in: MERC (MERC)

Titolo del progetto di ricerca: Learning how to improve physics-based earthquake forecasts using enhanced seismic datasets

Project title: Learning how to improve physics-based earthquake forecasts using enhanced seismic datasets

  • Scarica il CV

  • Short bio: Simone Mancini obtained his Ph.D. in Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol (England) in 2020 within a Doctoral Training Partnership funded by the UK National Environment Research Council (NERC). In 2021, he was Postdoctoral Researcher at the British Geological Survey (Edinburgh, Scotland), funded by the NERC-NSF project ”The Central Apennines Earthquake Sequence Under a New Microscope”. He currently holds a postdoctoral position at the Scuola Superiore Meridionale within the Modeling and Engeneering Risk and Complexity (MERC) research program.

    Dr Mancini’s research centres on the development of testable earthquake models that forecast the space-time evolution of seismic sequences. In particular, he focuses on improving the performance of physical models based on stress transfer between faults, as well as statistical forecasts based on purely empirical relationships obtained by observing how past earthquake sequences behaved. Dr Mancini primarily tests forecasts to case studies of natural seismicity (e.g., Italy, Southern California, Greece, Japan, etc.) and has collaborated with he UK Oil and Gas Authority to test the feasibility of applying statistical models also to cases of induced seismicity. He rigorously evaluates the performance of the forecasts using the formal statistical metrics of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), a global cyberinfrastructure in which he is actively involved.

    Please find a complete CV here

    Please find a description of my research project at this link.


    Submitted/In Preparation

    Mancini, S. and W. Marzocchi (2023), Probabilistic Forecasting of Medium- and Long-term Seismicity Rates in Italy using a simplified ETAS model (in preparation)

    M. Segou, S. Mancini and T. Parsons (2023), How Earthquake Clouds Stop Expanding, Nature Communications (in preparation).

    Chiaraluce, L., M. Michele, F. Waldhauser, Y. J. Tan, M. Herrmann, D. Spallarossa, … S. Mancini et al. (2022), A Comprehensive Suite of Earthquake Catalogues for the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence, Scientific Data (submitted).


    Mancini, S., M. Segou, M. J. Werner, T. Parsons, G. Beroza and L. Chiaraluce (2022), On the Use of High-Resolution and Deep-Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short-term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations, Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth

    Malagnini, L., T. Parsons, I. Munafò, S. Mancini, M. Segou and E. L. Geist (2022), Crustal Permeability Changes Inferred From Seismic Attenuation: Impacts on Multi-Mainshock Sequences, Frontiers in Earth Science

    Mancini, S., M. J. Werner, M. Segou and B. Baptie (2021), Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity Using an Injection-Rate Driven ETAS Model, Seismological Research Letters 92(6), 3471-3481.

    Mancini, S., M. Segou, M. J. Werner, and T. Parsons (2020), The Predictive Skills of Coulomb Rate and-state Aftershock Forecasts During the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110(4), 1736-1751.

    Mancini, S., M. Segou, M. J. Werner, and C. Cattania (2019), Improving Physics-based Aftershock Forecasts During the 2016-2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade, Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth 124, 8626-8643.

    Moretti, M., S. Pondrelli, L. Margheriti, … S. Mancini et al. (2016), SISMIKO: Emergency Network Deployment and Data Sharing for the 2016 Central Italy Seismic Sequence, Annals of Geophysics 59, fast track 5.